All win probability models are wrong — Some are useful – StatsbyLopez

As in the moments following the 2016 US election, win probabilities took center stage in public discourse after New England’s comeback victory in the Super Bowl over Atlanta. Unfortunately, n…

All win probability models are wrong — Some are useful – StatsbyLopez

StatsbyLopez

Success Probability - an overview

Python's «predict_proba» Doesn't Actually Predict Probabilities (and How to Fix It), by Samuele Mazzanti

What was lost? A causal estimate of fourth down behavior in the National Football League - IOS Press

AP Statistics: Chapter 5, Video #2 - Probability Models

1. Twenty-five percent of the customers of a grocery store - AP Stats

All Models Are Wrong - Alteryx Community

Thread by @EvolvingWild on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App

All Models Are Wrong - Alteryx Community

Winning Probability - an overview

Ben Rothman (@benrothman93) / X