low-probability, high-impact outcomes

There's an interesting Earth System Dynamics Discussion paper presenting a a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WG1 to the assessment and communication of climate change risks. Essentially, one can estimate the risk of some outcome by considering the likelihood of that outcome multiplied by the impact of that outcome. This is illustrated…

Risks in Global Supply Chains The Geography of Transport Systems

Risk Impact Probability Chart - Toolshero

low-probability, high-impact outcomes

Site of asteroid impact changed the history of life on Earth: the low probability of mass extinction

Probability Impact Matrix

The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach

Impact and Probability in Risk Assessment - apppm

Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

Assessing Risk Probability: Impact Alternative Approaches

Dr Valérie Masson-Delmotte @valmasdel.bsky.social on X: Low-likelihood, high-impact outcomes could occur at global and regional scales even for global warming within the very likely range for a given greenhouse emissions scenario. The

Probability-impact assessment - Praxis Framework